This is an HDTV christmas. HDTV pricings are dropping, while the size of the screens gets bigger. Its a trend that isnt going to stop. In fact, some think that 70" LCD will be the norm in 5 years.
What does that have to do with Web Video ? Everything
The thing about big screens, is that High Def content looks better the bigger the screen. Standard Def content looks worse the bigger the screen. Compressed web video looks bad if you try to expand it to fill your PC monitor. It becomes abstract art if you try to put it on your HDTV.
But thats just a minor issue. Here is the issue that everyone seems to be missing.
If you have a new HDTV look at the video inputs, or do something different and open up the manual. Either way you will come to find that the only way for your new HDTV to receive and display HD content in HD is through a component, DVI or HDMI port. Thats it. You may have S Video or Composite there, and they may allow you to connect to your cable, satellite or PC, but they don't play in HD.
Now look at the back of your PC. Look to see if you have a component, DVI or HDMI port out ? Chances are that unless you bought a PC with high def video in mind, you don't
To quote from Cool Hand Luke; "What we have here is a failure to communicate"
The PC you have, and that most Americans have can't connect to their brand new HDTV and play High Def content. (That is even if they have the 2.8Ghz processing power required in many cases).
So all the prognosticators who believe that streaming or downloaded High Def content over the net is right around the corner. Well, maybe only if that corner includes not only huge bandwidth upgrades, but also massive replacement of video cards or PCs with brand spanking new units. (Of course there is irony in the fact that if your CPU or video processor is fast enough, you can play HD content out of your VGA port to your PC monitor. But VGA inputs are going away in HDTVs and VGA to component doesnt work well and to DVI converters are expensive and confusing to typical consumers).
So how many people are going to upgrade or replace their PCs in order to connect to their new HDTVs ? How many are going to put the brand new or upgraded PC they just spent good money on close to, and shared with their HDTV and their high speed data connection and give up CPU and Bandwidth performance rather than just leasing a box from the satellite , cable or telco provider ?
I personally dont think many will and the natural replacement cycle will take many, many years to create a compatible installed base of PCs
So the opportunity for Video over the web to replace TV , if you think such a destination is possible, is going to be hurt by the quickly growing base of HDTVs. The expansion of HDTV content through traditional distribution is going to be helped
But wait, there'w more.
2 Way CableCards from the Cable providers and Satellite receivers on a PC Card from DirecTV or Dish Networks could quickly pre empt any chance video over the net had to replace traditional TV distribution. . If either of those becomes a USER INSTALLABLE , no more than 1 call to the provider option, then the PC might become a home for distribution of HD content to HDTV, which would of course put more nails in the video over the net replaces TV coffin
Personally, Im still suprised that cable and satellite providers would rather absorb the capital costs of boxes and all the inherent risks associated with changing technology and pricing rather than put the electronics on a card or chipset, with the appropriate HDMI or VESA output, that is sold cheap or bundled with service and control the entire thing through their sofware. There is no reason why a lot of this cant be on a chipset that is provided to PC manufacturers for Home Theater PCs, making every PC sold a client where the enduser picked up the capital cost.
If they would, then "plug your PC into the cable port in the wall and into your HDTV , and away you go becomes a reality". Satellite would only have to worry about installing the dish. MultiRoom would be simplified as PCs around the house could handle distribution to local TVs or monitors..
And video over the internet replacing cable and satellie would be just an amusing memory
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(Page 1)2. Starting with the PowerMac G4, about 9 years ago, all Apple computers shipped with DVI out. Adding DVI out to a PC is trivial, perhaps a $50 investment in a new video card.
I would have to say that people buying HDTV will have what's needed to connect their computer to the TV. That is if they really want to.
Posted at 3:48PM on Nov 28th 2006 by bps
3. Mac users have a distinct advantage here. DVI has been standard for a long time--by 3.5 year old PowerBook has it even. I have a Mac mini in my living room, it connects to my HDTV with a DVI->HDMI cable. Easy as pie. The mini is a perfect living room computer. A tower is out of the question if you want to keep a clean minimalist look.
But I agree that it will be a long time before most people have a computer hooked into their TV. Gadgets like the XBOX 360 and iTV will have to bridge that gap.
One quick note, there are cables that convert VGA to component. So it's not that hard to get most computers hooked into an HDTV. Connecting is just one issue though.
4. Mark:
As usual, you've hit this nail on the head. It's not the content, it's the little things that non-technical people think about like cables and connectors.
One thing you didn't mention is the cost of cables. HDMI cables are more expensive than other typical cables and electronics retailers are raising prices and scaring customers. A phrase overheard at BestBuy: "Why would you buy a $2000 TV and use a cheap cable?" The sentiment is valid but why buy a $100 cable?
Take your scenario and add the cable costs. Ouch!
Posted at 3:50PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Steve Kirks
5. Sorry but I couldn't disagree more. HD is only good news for web video.
My post on the subject.
http://sabet.typepad.com/bijanblog/2006/11/i_disagree_with.html
6. This reminds me of an argument I had with my father over the Thanskgiving break... He bought an LCD TV last week and said it was HD. When I turned it around (because the image looked like crap), he used the coax connector.
His argument was that "DirecTV says he didn't need anything to get HD" but yet there wasn't even the RGB connectors on the back, let alone DVI or HDMI. All he had was S-Video and the stupid yellow connector. Well this insued an argument and needless to say, he still thinks his image is HD.
This really had no bearing on your blog, I just thought it was a funny story!
Posted at 4:21PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Chris
7. "Now look at the back of your PC. Look to see if you have a component, DVI or HDMI port out ? Chances are that unless you bought a PC with high def video in mind, you don't"
Huh? Most video cards have DVI-out. My four year old Nvidia card has a DVI-out. As many other readers have pointed out, all Macs except for the iMac and MacBook have DVI ports, and those have "mini-DVI" ports that need a cable that costs $19.
As for CableCARDs... you seemed to have missed out on several things stopping their adoption. First, CableCARD 2 (the two-way version you mentioned) needs to actually exist. Right now it doesn't. Next, TVs that support CableCARD 2 need to exist. Not too many support the current version, and even those will not work with the interactive version when it finally debuts. So your silver bullet is at least a couple of years away.
Meanwhile, I can download a near-DVD quality movie today from Apple, and early next year I will be able to play it on my home theater system. The download is cheaper than if I went to Wal-Mart and bought the DVD. If DVDs aren't my thing, there's TV shows. Or I can get the latest lonelygirl15 episode from YouTube.
Internet video is a classic disruptive technology. "Premium" video, like DVDs, HDTV, etc. have had a hard time improving themselves to warrant their extra cost. HDTV has taken too long to reach most consumers, and who knows when the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD winner will reach anybody. Meanwhile internet distributed video shows up. It's not nearly as good, but it's much, much cheaper. It leverages technologies (broadband, GPU/CPU processors, web applications, PVRs, P2P) that were already evolving at a rapid pace. As all those other technologies continue to improve, the quality of internet video will improve with it. It's not going to win over the mid-life crisis guys -- you know the guys who buy a convertible sports car and/or a giant plasma TV when they turn 40. But it will win over their high school and college aged kids who will also turn 40 one day...
9. I gotta disagree with you on this one, Mark. But only on the hardware portion. Honestly, I don't think most of the future buyers of HDTVs will even worry about hooking a PC to their television simply because they'll be content with the HD offerings from over-the-air, cable or satellite. And, in a way, I guess that agrees with your point, but for the fact that not everyone wants to worry about hooking a PC to their computer. In the long-term (15 plus years), yes they will. But not now.
However, the early adopters are more concerned and will always find a way to hook the latest and greatest goodies to their HDTVs. That is where boxes like Apple's future media center, or a PC with Windows Media Center running on it will shine. It doesn't take much to get DVI out to the HDTV -- doesn't take much, that is, to the early adopter. Though, I think we'll see more units like the one Apple proposed, heck, you can get a PC that small right now, too.
And you didn't mention HD-DVD or BlueRay, but I don't think that is going to be a big deal, yet. My old DVD player works just fine into the component input of my HDTV, and if I go out and buy an upscaling DVD player, it will look even better.
Something you forgot to mention, though, is the lack of digital inputs. The lack of HDMI and component inputs in many of today's HDTVs being released is troubling. It isn't an issue for me now, but it quickly will be. Spending $500 for a HDMI/XM/component/7.1 reciever is not something I really want to do so I can hook a Wii, Mac iTV, cable box, upscaling or high-def format DVD player, etc., to my television. But it looks like I will as my high-end inputs are shrinking.
Sad part is I'll never use the two composite video, one s-video or single VGA input on my HDTV. But the one HDMI and single component is going to be a problem in six months. Pathetic! Why go through the trouble of bragging about digital this and digital that and include so many analog inputs on your product!
Posted at 5:45PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Chizzle
10. The majority of PCs being sold today are still using the "VGA" port, even if they're being sold with an LCD. Just like they still have PS2 ports.
Posted at 5:52PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Elias
11. I think the people buying HDTVs today are "early adopters" and other consumers will have to be sold on the technology.
Internet Video has had a much larger headstart in reaching into American homes, and chances are if you have broadband, you've watched Internet video. Computers and broadband have a much higher ownership rate than HDTV, and it has an advantage that HDTV does not have and can never have - leveraging the long tail.
HDTV has a better technical quality than TV-over-IP; I'll grant that; but with compression, you can get 720p at a streamable rate for most broadband connections.
But the biggest problem with the scenario that you describe is the idea that video-over-Internet and HDTV are competitive technologies. They really aren't - HDTV is going to have higher adoption among people who are more comfortable with getting information and entertainment from a television. TV-over-IP is going to have higher adoption among people who are more comfortable with getting information and entertainment over the Internet. This means most of the Boomers will be HDTV adopters, most of Gen Y will be TV-over-Internet adopters.
There's also the simple idea that even among the technically savvy members of Generation X, which can go either way, there really isn't a whole lot of compelling content on HDTV that justifies the recurring expense of a cable installation and additional fees. There are only a few good shows on television; and unless you're a major fan of nature documentaries or Mavericks Basketball, why would you spend the money when there still isn't a whole lot of content?
HDTV adoption will likely occur when the U.S. adopts a model like Britain's Freeview, offering 30 or so channels, for free-over-the-air, in each market.
Posted at 6:06PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Brian Boyko
12. I recently pulled the trigger on a first-generation Toshiba HD DVD player. More efficient video codecs, lossless audio formats, and increased media capacity allow for an HD experience that is noticeably improved over what my cable company delivers. There is much more to HDTV than mere resolution. If a 1080p signal is compressed to snot it will look like snot. (In this respect, all the attention paid to 720p/1080i/1080p sort of reminds me of how consumer-grade digital cameras are marketed using the somewhat meaningless megapixel metric. How many of us need to print our family snapshots at billboard size?)
It will be years before bandwidth availability permits downloadable HD to rival the quality that next-generation video formats (HD DVD and Blu-Ray) offer today. Consider that a dual-layer HD DVD can contain 30 GB of audio and video data. Lower compression ratios and high resolution will only become more important as people purchase larger and larger sets. That "near DVD quality" download from Apple is going to look craptacular on a 70" LCD set.
Posted at 6:12PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Matt
13. I think you make some valid points, but I don't think that growth in the internet video market and the ability to play this content on an HDTV are as intertwined as you believe.
Internet TV will evolve and devices (glorified PC's) will be specifically purposed to bridge the gap.. ie, Tivo, PS3, Slingbox, etc.
I think the set-top box manufacturers should more aggressively allow content on the internet to be accessed - for that matter, they should allow you to store your own video on the box and make it available on the tv without a "PC". I would pay for that box in order to help defray the initial capital costs.
These things will continue to emerge - you are correct in recognizing an issue. You just underestimate the ability for that obstacle to be removed.
Posted at 6:38PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Jeff Geiser
14. To the commenter who talked about cables...don't play into Best Buy's hands on the HDMI cable. When they sell you that $2000 TV, they make $20. When they sell you the $100 cable, they make $90. They would rather sell you the cable than the TV! But here's what they won't tell you...your cable provider will sell you the cable for $10, if they don't throw it in for free when they install your HD box. Tell the blue shirt that you already have the cable, then get yours from Comcast.
15. All four of my Macs have DVI out. My 80-something year old grandfather just picked up a 42" screen from Costco. His next purchase is going to be a Mac Mini. He hooked up my Mom's PowerBook to it over Thanksgiving and was blown away. Surely HP and Dell will figure this out before Apple manages to capitalize on it.
Posted at 8:24PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Brad Hutchings
16. Why not a slingbox in reverse? You've already bought your slingbox, you already have your sling software... now stream from your internet connected pc to your TV...
Posted at 8:42PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Ranjit Mathoda
17. Having worked a few years ago with a now defunct company, Precision Digital Images, writing software drivers, I too await a better experience. I have budgeted ($1600) for a HDTV purchase for our family next year.
What most appeals to me is to get rid of the interlacing, that's the (i) after the vertical resolution number, and I think that one should make sure one gets a 1080p, instead of 720p as exists in about half the sets being marketed, by my latest assessment.
Posted at 8:59PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Baiss Eric Magnusson
19. Mark, I've had about two years of experience playing with PC on SD, PC on HD, HDTV, IPTV streaming... here's a bit of it, hope you have the time to read it:
I went about procuring HD content a bit strangely, using my somewhat extensive knowledge of both HDTV technology and PC technology to pay about a third of what I would have if I had gone about it traditionally. I bought a widescreen samsung monitor (not a TV perse) with the proper component and dvi inputs, then had my cable company provide me with an HD dvr. My 5.1 sound? Off of my computer's amplifier. It works like wonders.
Since I can switch back and forth between my PC/HD dvr/Xbox 360, I think I have a little more insight into this particular conundrum.
First, it takes a hell of a lot of effort which is representative of only a tiny portion of the populace, and I don't think a rapid increase in this know-how will come about soon. Heck, my uncle works for a cable company and he knows next to nothing of most HD setups. The downside to this is that many companies will squeeze money out of you without necessarily meeting your needs. Most customers go through hell to get their HD on, and are happy only when the whole thing is showing 1080p on their living room.
Second, the novelty of PC on HD wears off fast. Youtube, pretty much the only video/over/web service that matters, looks awful no matter where you display it.
This whole thing was somewhat beneficial when you could connect your PC into a normal SD TV. The scan lines disguised a lot of the pixelation. I watched a lot of soccer matches this way streamed live through pioneering IPTV software like PPTV and Sopcast. I was so happy with streaming decentralization that I would have paid for what still is a free service (though one which requires a lot of research/effort).
People sharing their bandwidth with each other to stream a common desired video source is a genuinely heartwarming exercise in communal-stick-it-to-the-man but the witch hunt against it means we probably won't see a way to make a legal buck out of it before the owners of the content force it to die out.
Nowadays, UEFA.com is capitalizing on this and offers Payperview streaming of matches but the buffering and the strain on their servers are unavoidable.
It's also worth noting that the DVR's fall from grace may not be too distant. I've begun having troubles rewinding and forwarding DVR'd NBC content lately, and though I've been told it's a glitch, I can envision a future where a DVR's functionality is severely restricted. Which is a shame, I love pausing to watch particularly arresting/ingenious HD commercials... I just no longer want them shoved down my throat.
Which leaves us with PC on HD. Could it happen? Yes. Anytime soon? No. Who's more likely to thrive on this new market? Apple and Microsoft. MS is already delivering HD downloads over Xbox live, but that's pretty much all it is, and Apple may release something similar soon, a sort of content download/DVR hybrid.
While MS seems to merely be providing another way to distribute content, Apple may be working on something far more insidious, similar to the nature of the Ipod, which aids the delivery of content for a profit on the same platform that allows illegal content to be everywhere.
As owner of HDNet and specially of HDNet Films, I can see why you would want to be well informed/prepared. After all, it's your content that will be subject to this developments sooner rather than later. Personally, I don't think it's about restricting the distribution of the content at all, rather, of winning consumer loyalty and educating them to welcome different ways in which they should expect to be profited from.
... say... if this was at all educational... can I get some words either to my email or my blog?
I'd be thrilled beyond words,
Nando! ^_^
20. Sorry, it's nando again ^_^
If you where at all intrigued with the whole descentralized IPTV streaming (P2PTV for future reference) paragraph, you might want to check out my blog, I wrote a nice little history of-cum-what it may still become post about the whole thing.
You can find it here: http://paxaeterna.blogspot.com/2006/11/p2ptv-two-years-later.html
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1. People have been avoiding Media Centers like the plague, and this isn't going to change.
People are going to buy iTV. End of story.
Posted at 3:33PM on Nov 28th 2006 by solomonrex