This is an HDTV christmas. HDTV pricings are dropping, while the size of the screens gets bigger. Its a trend that isnt going to stop. In fact, some think that 70" LCD will be the norm in 5 years.
What does that have to do with Web Video ? Everything
The thing about big screens, is that High Def content looks better the bigger the screen. Standard Def content looks worse the bigger the screen. Compressed web video looks bad if you try to expand it to fill your PC monitor. It becomes abstract art if you try to put it on your HDTV.
But thats just a minor issue. Here is the issue that everyone seems to be missing.
If you have a new HDTV look at the video inputs, or do something different and open up the manual. Either way you will come to find that the only way for your new HDTV to receive and display HD content in HD is through a component, DVI or HDMI port. Thats it. You may have S Video or Composite there, and they may allow you to connect to your cable, satellite or PC, but they don't play in HD.
Now look at the back of your PC. Look to see if you have a component, DVI or HDMI port out ? Chances are that unless you bought a PC with high def video in mind, you don't
To quote from Cool Hand Luke; "What we have here is a failure to communicate"
The PC you have, and that most Americans have can't connect to their brand new HDTV and play High Def content. (That is even if they have the 2.8Ghz processing power required in many cases).
So all the prognosticators who believe that streaming or downloaded High Def content over the net is right around the corner. Well, maybe only if that corner includes not only huge bandwidth upgrades, but also massive replacement of video cards or PCs with brand spanking new units. (Of course there is irony in the fact that if your CPU or video processor is fast enough, you can play HD content out of your VGA port to your PC monitor. But VGA inputs are going away in HDTVs and VGA to component doesnt work well and to DVI converters are expensive and confusing to typical consumers).
So how many people are going to upgrade or replace their PCs in order to connect to their new HDTVs ? How many are going to put the brand new or upgraded PC they just spent good money on close to, and shared with their HDTV and their high speed data connection and give up CPU and Bandwidth performance rather than just leasing a box from the satellite , cable or telco provider ?
I personally dont think many will and the natural replacement cycle will take many, many years to create a compatible installed base of PCs
So the opportunity for Video over the web to replace TV , if you think such a destination is possible, is going to be hurt by the quickly growing base of HDTVs. The expansion of HDTV content through traditional distribution is going to be helped
But wait, there'w more.
2 Way CableCards from the Cable providers and Satellite receivers on a PC Card from DirecTV or Dish Networks could quickly pre empt any chance video over the net had to replace traditional TV distribution. . If either of those becomes a USER INSTALLABLE , no more than 1 call to the provider option, then the PC might become a home for distribution of HD content to HDTV, which would of course put more nails in the video over the net replaces TV coffin
Personally, Im still suprised that cable and satellite providers would rather absorb the capital costs of boxes and all the inherent risks associated with changing technology and pricing rather than put the electronics on a card or chipset, with the appropriate HDMI or VESA output, that is sold cheap or bundled with service and control the entire thing through their sofware. There is no reason why a lot of this cant be on a chipset that is provided to PC manufacturers for Home Theater PCs, making every PC sold a client where the enduser picked up the capital cost.
If they would, then "plug your PC into the cable port in the wall and into your HDTV , and away you go becomes a reality". Satellite would only have to worry about installing the dish. MultiRoom would be simplified as PCs around the house could handle distribution to local TVs or monitors..
And video over the internet replacing cable and satellie would be just an amusing memory
A Little Ditty about Web Video and HDTV
Reader Comments
(Page 2)22. Mark - you seem to be assuming that HD content on your TV has to come from a local device. Most set-top boxes connect to the internet, or at least some internet-accessible server.
I don't want a dedicated PC in my den with my TV. I want to be able to post my video to a server, and then view it on the TV. Or, alternatively, send video from my PC (laptop?) to the TV wirelessly.
It's been a really long time since the cable I/O's on a device were the end-all/be-all limit of what they were capable of doing...
Posted at 12:02AM on Nov 29th 2006 by Brian Greenberg
24. While not as ubiquious as HDMI, many HDTV manufacturers (sony,samsung, mitsubishi,ect) still include Firewire (IEEE1394) on many of their models. A significant portion of personal computers have integrated firewire, and the capability can be added for less than $50.
This allows streaming of HD content from low powered PCs (decoding done by the television), the addition of external HD PVR cababilities (DVHS&Hard disk based solutions) and direct HD camcorder viewing (some consumer models). While it isn't the preferred interface of manufacturers, I would say it is the most versatile. As you mentioned however, the average consumer is not going to be buying based on input options.
Posted at 1:13AM on Nov 29th 2006 by James Osadcuk
25. I'm a videographer with an HD camera. Woo Ahh. HD is overplayed and overvalued. It is pretty much a way to make more money for the industry instead of waiting for a real innovation to come along. It's just like John Madden 06, John Madden 07, etc. Just make a High resolution TV just like we've had with computers and monitors. Make DVDs with a flexible format, just like watching Windows Media or Quicktime. That way we don't have to pay up the wazoo for these lame hardware upgrades. HDTV should just be a big computer monitor with X resolution, Y contrast, Z refresh, and easier scaling.
Posted at 1:25AM on Nov 29th 2006 by Gavin the photographer
26. Alas, things are even worse due to our DRM overlords. I.e., one can not plug a Cablecard into a PC since the whole system has to be certified. (You can't even move the cablecard from one cablecard-ready TV to another without reregistering keys at the cable company.) And if you buy/upgrade a PC to Vista, it will only play hidef to a HDCP monitor as opposed to monitors people own or can buy. And CC2 is not out and cable companies are trying to delay the July 07 deadline. Plus the stream of newspaper articles from denouncing the sacrilege of spending money merely for much higher quality.
Sigh.
My only hope is Apple. the company and its customers are not trying for lowest priced commodity. Apple has a real advantage as a systems company controlling hardware and software. Plus Jobs' Pixar cred and iTunes experience gives him a chance to overcome the inertia of the antediluvian media executives. The iTunes DRM is annoying, but it seems to me to be reasonable and acceptable. iMovie has been hidef for a year and H.264 seems like a plan, so perhaps if in the next year we see a iTV version 2 and PowerMacs with blu-ray and ... then things may turn out better than I fear/expect.
Cynical P.S.: someone with your resources could produce a dozen or two spectacular "adult films", sell them at/below variable cost and drag the hidef adoption curve of the nation ahead by a couple years.
Posted at 4:32AM on Nov 29th 2006 by lee
27. I'd like to think that my comment on the Tim Duncan post sparked this post. But then again I live in a dream world.
I am not really concerned if Web Video gets to HD anytime really soon but I wouldn't mind incremental moves towards that end. YouTube, Google Video, etc. should really start serving up slightly better quality as it can. I am not sure if they have already made any jumps in quality, but I wouldn't mind seeing one soon.
Posted at 8:47AM on Nov 29th 2006 by Colin D. Devroe
28. I just finished purchasing everything for a Home Theater System and had to educate myself before doing so. As a computer geek that hardly dabbles in A/V stuff I was amazed at all the technology out there and lingo you had to learn just to make a half way educated decision. Trying to make a right decision between DLP, LCD, Plasma, 720p, 1080i, 1080p, Composite vs. HDMI vs. S-Video, Divx, MPEG-4, etc. etc. took me a while.
And yes, the PC to Home Theater idea took a little bit of thought. And thanks to the proliferation of the XBOX360 a relatively inexpensive HD DVD solution is available to all.
Just a heads up regarding the HDMI cables, you can get high quality, inexpensive ones at www.monoprice.com. And no this is not spam just a happy customer.
My number one complaint about the "Web Video" is like yours - when will see the required bandwidth from our ISP's??? Wasn't it Al Gore that promised HUGE Bandwidth for everyone? Do I remember right that the Telco's charged us 'upgrade' fees for this soon to be delivered bandwidth? Verizon is the only company I know of in the DFW area that has FIOS available; and that in a very limited area. When will we have the option in North Arlington?
Posted at 8:48AM on Nov 29th 2006 by Scholty
29. HD is over rated for now because there is a lack of content available. I am not a big dvd guy because I dont like watching movies more than once. I have a computer monitor that has an HDMI connection. This allows me to connect my comcast HD(which cost $15/month) box even though comcast does not support this connection(?). I feel that comcast is robbing me because they were pushing this digital tv revolution like we could'nt live without it, but they lack the programming to keep my interested. But now I stuck with this LCD monitor and an LCD Tv that look worse than my analog tv when you hook them up to a regular cable box.
Posted at 9:27AM on Nov 29th 2006 by Walter Johnson
30. Yeah, but try using that DVI out on your standard video-card. Just connecting the cable is unlikely to work -- there are software settings you need to tweak to make sure the card is sending video to the port. It doesn't always work and it just plain sucks. Truth is, this stuff is not easy and the points raised here are very valid.
RetiringEarly.com
31. Laptops have outsold PCs for a while now so a PCI/AGP card might not be the smartest thing to do. Not to mention it'd void warranties and most of the population doesn't know how (or want to) open their PCs.
USB or firewire? an option, but cable companies have made the smart decision; control access at the source. The bandwidth required for HD will be from your cable provider or ISPs own network, you won't be able to go to YouTube and stream high-def because your provider won't give them the bandwidth (I'd be surprised if they gave them enough for DVD quality in the future).
I seem to make futile point in every blog post you make, but I always liked practice. I realise you are a big booster of High-Def, it makes you money and it's in your interest to play it up, but it won't be reaching critical mass for years (I'd say closer to 10 than 5) and even then you're looking at whether the picture quality is worth 20 times DVD quality. ISPs would much rather you watch DVD quality for now, the backbone for mass HDTV is years away.
Why are you so certain A. PCs will still be the masses home node and B. That a physical connection to the TV will even be necessary?
Wireless N is around and can easily handle the average family's media consumption in High-Def. 1-2 years and it'll replace Wireless G as standard.
And I'll jump on the bandwagon and join the group proclaiming cell phones to become all singing/dancing mobile computers.
My bet is on Apple flopping in 2007, beyond the Macnuts the ISP/cable market will sink them, who will buy a media box when your cable provider will give you one? (we all know you're paying for it by your monthly fees but even with a Mac, you have to get your bandwidth from someone :P).
Sorry I've gone off-topic but well, my responses always do.
Posted at 1:36PM on Nov 29th 2006 by Adam Cains
32. Why can't my TV just be a computer?
Posted at 2:31PM on Nov 29th 2006 by Average Betty
33. Mark's got some good points here, but he's off the mark (pun intended) saying folks don't have DVI. DVI is shipping on most PCs these days (and every Mac for several years). Theoretically, iTV and Xbox 360 can remove some of the barriers as well.
I completely agree that much of this stuff is pretty technical and seemingly expensive. I've just launched a site detailing how I'm ditching cable in favor of downloads and recording television OTA. The site just launched, so it's a little rough - but the details are here: htttp://www.ditchingcable.com.
Posted at 3:12PM on Nov 29th 2006 by Randy Stewart
34. Ok.. so all this HD Video and especially when speaking of SPORTS and ENTERTAIMENT always seems to leave out HD Audio. Who gives a rats ass about audio when the video boys need all the bandwidth??? Well... www.jdmmobile.com then!
xx
Posted at 3:33PM on Nov 29th 2006 by Jimmy Daniel
35. Mark,
You raise some good points even if the details were inaccurate technically. But I think even you have missed the biggest (pun intended) issue: file sizes. HDTV is HUGE!
Forget crap like Apple's "near DVD" quality-it's unwatchable. SD from sources like DirecTV and digital cable is so bad it's unwatchable due to compression artifacts. OTA HD can look pretty good-but there are still artifacts-and that's at 19 Mb/s. When I switched to cable I A/B'd OTA vs. their HD and found it acceptable. The SD looks horrible bit I watch that as little as possible.
I've not seen any realtime internet video that I deem of acceptable quality. I'll watch-but only if the content is unavailable elsewhere. Once you see HDTV it's hard to look at anything else.
My sister has had HDTV for over a year. To me that means it's moved well beyond the "early adopter" stage. And as she and my brother-in-law expose friends to HD they also buy sets. As you are well aware Mark-sports really shine in HD.
My DSL speed is about 1.5 Mb/s. I could get faster but would have to pay far more than I'm willing to.
A HD film uses a minimum of 20 gigabytes authored with the latest AVC or VC-1 CODECs. So a film would take a couple of days to download! And where do you keep it? A hard drive will fill up pretty quickly with files that large.
So that's why I laugh my ass off every time I hear some tech "visionary" talking about HD over the internet or through VOD.
It's a simple issue of bandwidth. It will be MANY years before it becomes feasible.
So I'll watch my HD DVR and buy my Blu Ray movies, thanks!
Posted at 4:28PM on Nov 29th 2006 by Kraig Bailey
38. The masses are not going to connect PCs to their HDTVs. What will end up happening is that some dominant media client device (probably iTV) will emerge and that will connect the TVs to the PCs or network storage. I currently use the Sony RoomLink system that streams TV, Video, Pictures, and Music from my office to my HDTV in the family room and it works great. Netgear's first products from the SkipJam acquisition will probably be very cool as well.
Posted at 6:01PM on Nov 29th 2006 by Doug
39. DVI->HDMI cables are low cost and easy to obtain for those that know they exist
Posted at 6:27PM on Nov 29th 2006 by James Clarke
40. just a data point: the cheap Vizio 32" LCD tv from Costco has one HDMI input and two (count 'em) component video inputs, along with VGA and the usual S-video etc. for $699. it is 720p. I haven't tried hooking a Mac up to it yet because I need a DVI->HDMI adapter but those are cheap. supposedly, though, you get a better display using the VGA input, according to some HDTV forum I read and forget where it is.
Posted at 6:48PM on Nov 29th 2006 by 42
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21. Yes, there are a lot of DVI ports out there on PCs. We see them come through PC Magazine labs all the time. But I think you're missing one big thing about hooking up your PC to your HDTV.. You don't need cable or SAT for a great picture. Over the air HD is free, and with an HD tuner card inside, you get glorious high resolution video, and now with the new Media Center software in Vista, finally we have a front end to rival TiVo.
Sure, you don't get ESPN, or HDNet Movies. But you do get four or five networks, PBS, and other channels too. Here in the bay area I get 20 or so high definition channels for free, dropped into my PC. Oh, and because it is DRM free (at least for now), I can copy shows and watch them on my notebook while flying, stream them to my XBox 360 upstairs (hooked up to the OTHER HDTV via component cables), or save them to watch later.
Oh, the other part of your argument, the wire part, hopefully will be solved at CES this year when we see the first UWB accessories. Hopefully we'll be able to attach one end to our PC, the other end to our HDTV and it'll handle the heavy lifting. Without a $200 cable from Best Buy.
jim
Posted at 11:50PM on Nov 28th 2006 by Jim Louderback