This is an HDTV christmas. HDTV pricings are dropping, while the size of the screens gets bigger. Its a trend that isnt going to stop. In fact, some think that 70" LCD will be the norm in 5 years.
What does that have to do with Web Video ? Everything
The thing about big screens, is that High Def content looks better the bigger the screen. Standard Def content looks worse the bigger the screen. Compressed web video looks bad if you try to expand it to fill your PC monitor. It becomes abstract art if you try to put it on your HDTV.
But thats just a minor issue. Here is the issue that everyone seems to be missing.
If you have a new HDTV look at the video inputs, or do something different and open up the manual. Either way you will come to find that the only way for your new HDTV to receive and display HD content in HD is through a component, DVI or HDMI port. Thats it. You may have S Video or Composite there, and they may allow you to connect to your cable, satellite or PC, but they don't play in HD.
Now look at the back of your PC. Look to see if you have a component, DVI or HDMI port out ? Chances are that unless you bought a PC with high def video in mind, you don't
To quote from Cool Hand Luke; "What we have here is a failure to communicate"
The PC you have, and that most Americans have can't connect to their brand new HDTV and play High Def content. (That is even if they have the 2.8Ghz processing power required in many cases).
So all the prognosticators who believe that streaming or downloaded High Def content over the net is right around the corner. Well, maybe only if that corner includes not only huge bandwidth upgrades, but also massive replacement of video cards or PCs with brand spanking new units. (Of course there is irony in the fact that if your CPU or video processor is fast enough, you can play HD content out of your VGA port to your PC monitor. But VGA inputs are going away in HDTVs and VGA to component doesnt work well and to DVI converters are expensive and confusing to typical consumers).
So how many people are going to upgrade or replace their PCs in order to connect to their new HDTVs ? How many are going to put the brand new or upgraded PC they just spent good money on close to, and shared with their HDTV and their high speed data connection and give up CPU and Bandwidth performance rather than just leasing a box from the satellite , cable or telco provider ?
I personally dont think many will and the natural replacement cycle will take many, many years to create a compatible installed base of PCs
So the opportunity for Video over the web to replace TV , if you think such a destination is possible, is going to be hurt by the quickly growing base of HDTVs. The expansion of HDTV content through traditional distribution is going to be helped
But wait, there'w more.
2 Way CableCards from the Cable providers and Satellite receivers on a PC Card from DirecTV or Dish Networks could quickly pre empt any chance video over the net had to replace traditional TV distribution. . If either of those becomes a USER INSTALLABLE , no more than 1 call to the provider option, then the PC might become a home for distribution of HD content to HDTV, which would of course put more nails in the video over the net replaces TV coffin
Personally, Im still suprised that cable and satellite providers would rather absorb the capital costs of boxes and all the inherent risks associated with changing technology and pricing rather than put the electronics on a card or chipset, with the appropriate HDMI or VESA output, that is sold cheap or bundled with service and control the entire thing through their sofware. There is no reason why a lot of this cant be on a chipset that is provided to PC manufacturers for Home Theater PCs, making every PC sold a client where the enduser picked up the capital cost.
If they would, then "plug your PC into the cable port in the wall and into your HDTV , and away you go becomes a reality". Satellite would only have to worry about installing the dish. MultiRoom would be simplified as PCs around the house could handle distribution to local TVs or monitors..
And video over the internet replacing cable and satellie would be just an amusing memory
A Little Ditty about Web Video and HDTV
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Reader Comments
(Page 3)42. Mark,
Your thoughts on Morgan Freeman's Clickstar (clickstarinc.com)?
Posted at 3:25AM on Nov 30th 2006 by A. Grahovic
43. First, it takes a hell of a lot of effort which is representative of only a tiny portion of the populace, and I don't think a rapid increase in this know-how will come about soon. Heck, my uncle works for a cable company and he knows next to nothing of most HD setups. The downside to this is that many companies will squeeze money out of you without necessarily meeting your needs. Most customers go through hell to get their HD on, and are happy only when the whole thing is showing 1080p on their living room.
Second, the novelty of PC on HD wears off fast. Youtube, pretty much the only video/over/web service that matters, looks awful no matter where you display it.
This whole thing was somewhat beneficial when you could connect your PC into a normal SD TV. The scan lines disguised a lot of the pixelation. I watched a lot of soccer matches this way streamed live through pioneering IPTV software like PPTV and Sopcast. I was so happy with streaming decentralization that I would have paid for what still is a free service (though one which requires a lot of research/effort).
People sharing their bandwidth with each other to stream a common desired video source is a genuinely heartwarming exercise in communal-stick-it-to-the-man but the witch hunt against it means we probably won't see a way to make a legal buck out of it before the owners of the content force it to die out.
Posted at 3:32AM on Nov 30th 2006 by Dibyajoti Biswas (DJ) Athens Greece . Global Account Manager Ltes Global Solutions LTD
44. Speaking of HD, I'd like to personally thank you for the two HDNet channels on Direct TV. We moved into new offices and have the DirectTV HD DVR's with Panasonic HD Plasma monitors. The quality of most the HD content is pretty good, but without question HDNet is the best. Sometimes I'll watch a movie I didn't really want to see just to admire the quality of the HD picture. Also, to my surprise, the HDNet World News and newly introduced Dan Rather reports are well done and a breath of fresh air in their straight forward, non-sensationalist approach. I was a little leery of what Dan Rather would do
Posted at 3:34AM on Nov 30th 2006 by Dibyajoti Biswas (DJ) Athens Greece . Global Account Manager Ltes Global Solutions LTD
45. This whole thing was somewhat beneficial when you could connect your PC into a normal SD TV. The scan lines disguised a lot of the pixelation. I watched a lot of soccer matches this way streamed live through pioneering IPTV software like PPTV and Sopcast. I was so happy with streaming decentralization that I would have paid for what still is a free service (though one which requires a lot of research/effort).
People sharing their bandwidth with each other to stream a common desired video source is a genuinely heartwarming exercise in communal-stick-it-to-the-man but the witch hunt against it means we probably won't see a way to make a legal buck out of it before the owners of the content force it to die out.
Posted at 3:35AM on Nov 30th 2006 by Dibyajoti Biswas (DJ) Athens Greece . Global Account Manager Ltes Global Solutions LTD
46. Why would I want to buy HDTV in the first place ? All the content sucks. Sorry. Id rather the networks hire better writers and artists than going out and HDTVing everything. And actually Mark, consumers to get a jump of resolution when they purchase a digital tv and DO NOT use cable or dish such as myself. SDTV is a great option for people that want to watch crystal clear football without the monthly membership. :-P
We've been screaming iTV for years with Liberate(gone), and Microsoft. Aint going to happen. All these companies are too busy chasing their own tails while iTunes racks up the big bucks distributing content on the fly.
47. I don't see a problem with the upgrade, even if the cards lack the output you mention.
People with HDTVs are rich (and probably tech-savvy). Computers/cards are relatively cheap. This shouldn't take long for them/their kids/neighbor/friend to fix.
once fixed, illegally or legally, the change will happen. Some guy in Denmark will figure out how to rip HD DVD in a few weeks (if not already), and save HD on Media Center PCs (probably a paid software which will itself be pirated/ripped). There goes your theory.
Posted at 1:26PM on Nov 30th 2006 by sahil
48. "Im still suprised that cable and satellite providers would rather absorb the capital costs of boxes and all the inherent risks associated with changing technology and pricing rather than put the electronics on a card or chipset,"
Really? You're surprised? It's taken the cable and satellite providers this long just to deliver video on demand and learn how to save video to a harddrive (the DVR). And frankly, they still don't have that right. I have DirecTv and the DVR they offer now after the switch from Tivo is a piece of crap. The cable companies and satellite providers are dinosaurs when it comes to technology.
Posted at 1:58PM on Nov 30th 2006 by Ben in Denver
49. Are you crazy?
I have a 32" HDTV hooked up to my computer via a DVI -> HDMI lead, I download a hell of a lot of HD content, and watch it all with my £400 dell computer and a £100 video card upgrade (couldn've been cheaper, but that's the one I went for)
So in short, your article is completely wrong, a £500 computer will happily perform as a HTPC.
Posted at 2:46PM on Nov 30th 2006 by Alex
50. I hate to say it, but you're totally wrong. My three-year-old home-built DVR running BeyondTV (www.snapstream.com) plays back off-air HD. It has an old Athlon XP 2400+.
And yes, Mac users are also in a good place because every new Intel Mac can playback 1080/24p encoded as H.264 like it was built for that purpose.
51. In the future, you won't need a DVI or HDMI port. TV's will have an Ethernet port, which will allow remote connections to your media server(s). Think of it as an "extender" to your existing media center. All media will be streamed to your TV which will have decoder hardware/software built. No messy OS's to worry about, plenty storage remotely, simplified cabling, protected media path for DRM, etc. - it's done.
You're article is so 2007.
Posted at 8:14PM on Nov 30th 2006 by HiDefLoLife
52. Donald Trump is ripping you big time on CNBC's "The Big Idea".
What an a$$hole Trump is!
Posted at 9:09PM on Nov 30th 2006 by Joe Hernandez
53. A lot of this is invention for revenue sake. I remember when almost everyone had a black and white TV, and there were no remotes. Flat screens are great (because of the space issue), but a lot of the iterations are just so the companies that make these things can make a buck.
Posted at 10:58PM on Nov 30th 2006 by basketball
54. Ok cool, i live in an affluent area, so i guess normal isnt mass populace america, but lots of people here have HDTV sets as 1080p monitors using the DVI ports from such cards as the NVIDIA 7600GT - really the Westinghouse digital 1080p is inexpensive and the graphics card is 69 bucks, plug-play hit the remote its all good. The biggest complaint i heard was the outrageous price of a long DVI cable.
e.g. the people that can hookup , will hookup. That part is easy.
However, not one of these people is using the PC-HDTV connection for streaming HD off the web, even though quite a few have FIOS.
They dont even seek HD video there. They do google earth and photo galleries and such. Web bandwidth just is not well suited to HD... so this same HDTV is used for home theater and such and HDnet and Discovery HD, cinemax. IPTV may well be great for postage stamp sized videos but no way would i expect HD to get much traction even with the die-hard bit-torrent crowd.
Keep up the great work and thanks for the Dan Rather reports- good stuff.
Regards, Jeff http://jeff-johnson.com
Posted at 11:40PM on Nov 30th 2006 by Jeff Johnson
55. Some lucky residents surrounding DFW like Keller, Plano and Grapevine have had fiber optic cable installed to their homes by Verizon. Video services have been recently added there and in CA, FL, NY and other states. AT&T has not committed that far so that Dallas residents can take advantage yet. In any case, the PC may not be the primary vehicle to iTV in the future anyway.
Posted at 3:00PM on Dec 1st 2006 by Jim Smith
56. Wow I must be completely missing the boat here. I bought a pc video card 6 years ago and I have almost never used it. Why, because when i want to use the TV i use the TV and i want to use the computer I use the computer. This isn't because I am a luddite, I wanted it to work, It was just impractical. It had nothing to do with video quality.
However I do feel that HDTV is the wave of the future, but right now the options are just too confusing for the average person.
Posted at 8:31PM on Dec 1st 2006 by superdave
58. Mark, I read about this interesting device that converts the HD signal thru a small USB adapter. Maybe this is a possible solution for all those folks without a HD Tuner card on their PC?
http://crunchgear.com/2006/09/20/pinnacle-pctv-hd-pro-stick/
I have yet to try it myself, so i'm unable to give an opinion. But looks like an easy way to watch HD on my PC.
Posted at 10:41PM on Dec 1st 2006 by Brian
59. (before you read this, think of me as a young man who wants to own his own NFL franchise through working up from scratch)
wow. just wow. i just can't believe this. Look how you just totally ripped any thinking that people were going to start streaming shit online on a regular basis. wow, i actually want to believe you, because you are right. anyone who does any research knows that online forums are still in the growth stage, and those haven't reached their final potential. i've seen many examples i have no need to plug.
i mean you are a true business man. from what i read online you own some company that makes the new HDtv's or whatever. how SMART! these things JUST came out. Now you're pitching for people to buy them over Christmas. i mean you're not duping me at all because you have me convinced that buying one of these tv's is a good investment...almost! (just kidding, that's awesome, awesome marketing...now get this blog out there to a shitload of people, i.e. facebook)
i want to apply these skills in my life, no matter what i do. i know my dream right now is becoming a 'liberal' owner in the NFL, one that deals with bullshit personally. you're down there sacrificing all this time to watch all these games.. that's not just for sho. you know what that's for? it's to get your damn team motivated. I don't know enough about Arhtur Blank the falcons owner, but damn is he a character. other than you, arthur blank is the only owner of a sports franchise in which i can put a face on. i don't even know the face of the owner of my favorite team the kansas city chiefs!
i mean even if i never meet you, you can be DAMN sure that i will at least look at what you do, and try to emulate it into whatever venture my life takes me. And after i read your wikipedia thing (which you should update yourself)i see that you are interested in reading the book fountainhead. i was never actually interested in reading that book until i read the quote that you may have said about it "like thinking as an individual, taking risks, and taking responsibility for successes and failures" i mean this quote may not look much but wow, that says ALOT.
So in conclusion, please keep on doing these things that you're doing and maybe if i keep on doing what needs to be done (without risking my integrity as well as others) i will become successful someday...
by the way, great poise on PTI. wow. answering all the right questions, being polite enough not to answer others... youre almost torn straight from Machiavelli.
Posted at 2:07PM on Dec 2nd 2006 by Charles Martin
60. Mark...with respect, you are wrong - I have had my PC connected to my large TV for several months now, it has a VGA port in it.
I have blogged about this on my blogsite broadstuff here as it is a common myth.
Posted at 11:55AM on Dec 3rd 2006 by alan patrick
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41. I think the hardware is a minor roadblock compared to bandwidth availability. Well equipped PC's are becoming cheaper every year so buying a HD capable PC won't be a big deal. Downloading that DVD HD quality video is a different story.
Speaking of HD, I'd like to personally thank you for the two HDNet channels on Direct TV. We moved into new offices and have the DirectTV HD DVR's with Panasonic HD Plasma monitors. The quality of most the HD content is pretty good, but without question HDNet is the best. Sometimes I'll watch a movie I didn't really want to see just to admire the quality of the HD picture. Also, to my surprise, the HDNet World News and newly introduced Dan Rather reports are well done and a breath of fresh air in their straight forward, non-sensationalist approach. I was a little leery of what Dan Rather would do, but watching his reports have reminded me of what a first rate newsman he is.
Thanks
Posted at 12:18AM on Nov 30th 2006 by LA Guy