Every now and then its fun and interesting to try to theorize where personal computing is, and where its going. Its also important strategically for anyone in the digital content business as I am.
I thought I would put some things out there and see what people think.
The first step is to look to see how most people use their PCs. Email. The Web. Basic business applications. Personal Finance. Few of which even begin to use much of the processing power, whether CPU or ASIC of todays cheapest PCs.
Thats not to say that there aren't applications that can be processor hogs. Anything rich media related, particularly as it relates to personal modification can be heavy resources users. Whether its capture, storage and editing of pictures, graphics or video, they all can and will use all the resources available on a PC.
Then there is gaming, which also consumes all it can.
I believe that this bifurcation of personal/home computing into light and heavy resource consuming applications, will lead to a dramatic change in the technology industry.
We are starting to see the manifestations of this split today. The release of new gaming consoles has easily eclipsed the release of the new generations of new CPUs or PCs as a major consumer event.
Remember the days of Pentium releases being a big event ? The excitement of a new line of Dell or Compaq or IBM computers ? It seems to ancient to think that the release of a new PC even mattered. Today its the release of a new XBox or PS3 that gets the attention and people waiting in line for stores to open. Even the release of Vista didnt generate much consumer excitement.
Gaming consoles are already serving as hosts for DVD , HD DVD and Blu Ray players, along with hard drive and USB support for video and pictures. Which leads to the question. Will gaming consoles replace PCs in the home, not just for gaming as they have done already, but also as the primary home device for all things graphical ?
Will people stop putting their pictures on their PCs and buy gaming consoles for this purpose instead ?
If the gaming consoles get real keyboards and better web browsers they will.
Which is exactly what could make the future of home computing very, very interesting and upset the MicroSoft and Applecart :), and give a huge edge to Google and maybe Yahoo and even Sony.
Think of it this way. If for whatever reason the majority of consumers moved any and all applications that involved heavy graphics and CPU use to gaming consoles, what would be left to do on a PC that couldn't be done online ? Are there any ?
Spreadsheets, Word Processors, Powerpoint, Email, Personal Database, Personal Finance ? They are all so limited in their resource utilization, a very strong case could be made that its smarter to do these things online from a gaming console or any inexpensive PC. The inherit benefits of distributed computing could outway some of the limits of not having the biggest box on the block. Things like less power consumption, lower software costs, full backups and much more.
It all comes down to platforms. Why can't a small console, much like today's gaming consoles handle local multimedia and gaming and have a browser , keyboard and broadband connection to do everything else online ?
If this happens, what happens to windows ? MicroSoft ? Apple ?
Its hard to say, but the big winner could be Google.
In looking at Google's public technology discussions, it appears that a thin client, distributed computing future is exactly what they are expecting.
Google has created and continues to expand huge datacenters around the world. From whats been written, they contain tens, if not hundreds of thousands of processors all clustered and networked together. They are connected to each other via fiber, and are in turn connected by dark and lit fiber to every and any internet peering point they possibly can.
Its a critical distinction that they only have fiber to peering points rather than having direct access to homes. First, in a world with net neutrality, it means Google has the fastest access to common points connecting to the last mile than anyone else. More importantly, it throttles how much bandwidth they can deliver to the home. You can lead a 10mbs stream to a peering point, but you can't make the ISP drink it. Sure it will pass through, but there are no quality of service requirements at that peering point. Google can put some beautiful HD content out on their servers, and it will be perfect.. until it gets to the peering points, at which point it loses all its priority and becomes just another packet. Which is the downside of net neutrality. Google can't buy their way to having their packets given priority, so those who expect big bandwidth video to the home from Google Video... as both Google and I mentioned in this post, it aint gonna happen the way things stand today.
That said, Google is in a unique position with their datacenters and infrastructure to dominate thin client computing and everything they are doing seems to point in that direction.
If you arent famliar with Virtual Machines, you need to be.
Virtual Machines are exactly what they seem to be. The ability to create a virtual computer on which any and all personal computer applications (as well as higher end apps) can reside. VMs are more ideally suited for applications that dont chew up alot of bandwidth, which is why the seperation of multimedia applications to consoles is critical to VMs becoming popular.
If the heavy bandwidth apps are on gaming consoles, then why wouldnt consumers just connect to the net and use Google Office apps, or MicroSoft Live Office Apps, or any other provider of online apps ?
Which is exactly what I think Google is trying to accomplish in the future. Huge datacenters of clustered computers running an unlimited number of Virtual Machines for an unlimited number of users with unlimited bandwidth out, all free to consumers in exchange for seeing ads in limited areas could turn the consumer world upside down.
Which is a better development platform for app developers of the future, Vista or a Google Virtual Machine ?
Which is a better consumer platform , using any low end PC to run all your non multimedia apps, or worrying about upgrading to VIsta ? Buying the latest Office apps or running them for free online ?
Which puts Sony and MicroSoft in a strange position. The more successful and powerful their Xbox and PS/X consoles are, and the more diverse their applications applications are, the more successful Google or another online provider of Virtual Machines and applications can and should be.
And I havent even begun to discuss the role of HDTVs to replace personal computers.
Its going to be an interesting next 5 to 7 years
Virtual Machines
TV as the PC ?
The Future of Personal Computing ?
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(Page 1)2. In Infoworld a few months ago, a writer attempted to work completely online to test all the existing applications and compare them.
Except for email and document access when not connected, his productivity didn't suffer.
You will not see any improvement until Dell or a big player ships a PC with a free OS and tools like Open office.
The quickest potential for something like this is the $100 PC. When it is commercially available and actually works, essentially you will be buying a hard drive with internet access.
Posted at 1:51PM on Feb 11th 2007 by PSC
3. Interesting points. I think you miss three things:
- Consoles are subsidized by game sales. One can substitute rentals for this, but historically, people have not liked rental software. This could change, of course, but I know how _I_ would feel if my financial data were held hostage.
- Bandwidth, the last mile, and the role of telecom. Our country is seriously screwed up on this front, and I don't see it getting better.
- Business. While an amusing image, I have trouble seeing the bean counters massaging spreadsheets on an Xbox. ("im in ur CapEx, depreciating ur assets!") Business sales made MS what it is. Consumer driven technology is changing that, but it is still a huge, and conservative, market. In some ways it is expanding, in that non-tech companies are forced by competition to not only use the efficiencies on ops, but also cater to consumers with websites, CRM support, etc.
As a forth point, and I'm not sure where this is going but it ties in to telecom, phones are a big, big deal. If the stranglehold created by the subsidy carriers pay to manufacturers can be broken and a true open platform emerges, all hell will break loose for existing models.
Posted at 1:55PM on Feb 11th 2007 by fishbane
4. Mark, I agree with you. You've hit some points that I've been harping for the last few years. Being partially involved in the game industry, we're seeing hardware platforms expand exponentially in terms of their processing power and overall brawn. The online platforms that are being built for this next generation of consoles (Xbox Live, Sony Online, Nintendo's forthcoming) are certainly proving themselves as a case study to show that they will become used. The usage statistics for Xbox Live are increasing.
We have a long ways to go until all consoles are plugged in to the Internet but we're starting to see this. Will consoles replace the PC's? Who knows, but I do not foresee any reasons why they couldn't.
Google's model for online application access is certainly interesting and really works when all end clients are connected to the Internet (thus, connected console). I'd love to see this.
Great post- good insight. Will blog about my thoughts later. Rock-on. Go Mavs!
Posted at 2:05PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Darren Herman
5. Why would microsoft be in a bad position then? In terms on console they have Xbox360, and they have MSN, window live, and the current platform of internet explorer and window Vista.
If anything, if they manage to integrate all these together, they should come up a winner in the future of personal computing.
Posted at 2:11PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Dominic Lee
6. I agree with you, VMs are the future. It will also lead to mobiles becoming far more important to the user than the PC ever was.
For a start, manufacturers need to begin enabling wireless or bluetooth on all their displays (TVs/monitors).
I'm really interested in watching how work will become embedded into a personal life.
Could Bill Gates' tablet world be far off?
Posted at 2:19PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Adam Cains
7. There's one wild card in this game plan, Mark. More and more people are getting curious about making their own media -- blogging, podcasting, making music, making video, etc. Sure, most of these folks aren't making a dime from it, but they still enjoy the craft and need the tools and CPU power to handle it.
A few of these tools are online now, but they aren't exactly robust. JumpCut, for example, might be my video editor of choice if only I could download my creations to my PC, but it still has all the limitations you'd expect from a thin-client video editing tool. As far as I know, there are no online tools for editing audio or images, either.
IMHO, these are the people that will drive PC and Mac sales in the coming years, and their numbers are still growing in spite of the lack of profit motive. Apple in particular will likely stay in the computer business for a long time because of this market.
Posted at 2:21PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Dave's Lounge
8. A few of these tools are online now, but they aren't exactly robust. JumpCut, for example, might be my video editor of choice if only I could download my creations to my PC, but it still has all the limitations you'd expect from a thin-client video editing tool. As far as I know, there are no online tools for editing audio or images, either.
--
I don't really know why it needs to be online, but you might want to check out Apple's $79 Suite of apps called iLife. Best in the world at doing exactly what you describe.
http://www.apple.com/ilife
Don't buy yet, version 7 is coming out next month.
Posted at 2:41PM on Feb 11th 2007 by mike
9. "Why can't a small console, much like today's gaming consoles handle local multimedia and gaming and have a browser
Well, at first I thought you were talking about the Mac mini, most of that stuff you mentioned, right, is done by Google, which is actually very nice.
Hardware releases are usually lame because it's the SOFTWARE that makes such a big difference, not speeds or screen sizes.
Vista was lame because it was so disappointing. That technology has been around for a long time, and furthermore, the security improvements just arent there.
The difference is that, when software releases are powerful, it's a big deal.
Whether bits are in a box, or on the web, they are what matter.
Google and Apple. Who else? Those two companies seem to be running things these days.
MS rules the world of business on the client side, and Linux on the server side.
Are we done here? ;)
Posted at 2:41PM on Feb 11th 2007 by mike
10. Been there, done that. It was called timesharing, and is how CompuServe got started in 1969. From the beginning, the way computing gets done has been about the relative power of hardware, software and networking. When business-quality PCs first came out in the 1980s, those of us in the IT (we called it DP then) part of the world said, 'oh yeah, who's going to do the backup on all those PCs?' The answer was that very few end users bothered to do backups, and nearly everyone who has used a personal computer for a long time has lost of lot of valuable work because of a hard drive crash and no backup.
Nonetheless, PCs filled a need, and eventually corporate IT departments began supporting PCs rather than fighting against them. The next problem that needed to be solved was how to share data between users, and how to have a shared corporate data store. Along came local area networking (including an outfit called MicroSolutions) to solve that problem.
Since then, hardware, software and networking have evolved in parallel, although networking has been the last to catch up. Now we have incredibly fast and cheap hardware, amazing software, and more bandwidth to the home that any of us would have though imaginable just a decade ago (remember when ISDN speeds seemed like a dream?).
And once again, users are finding that they don't want the hassle of installing software, defending against viruses, and performing regular backups -- all the operations tasks. They just want to drive their cars, not change the oil and replace the tires.
So here we are, back to timesharing. Google is building data centers so massive that connectivity to the electrical network is as important as connectivity to the Internet. So rather than cozy up to the main peering points, they're building close to hydroelectric generating facilities, like Grand Coulee Dam.
The only thing we can be sure of is that this isn't the last lap around the cycle...
11. I doubt it. Those online apps give you virtually no options. Using a video game console as a personal computer gives you virtually no options, little room for expansion, little chance of upgrading the software, and no access to change things. Given that the latest gaming consoles cost nearly as much as a similarly powerful computer, I fail to see the advantage to going that route. If it's power consumption, they're going to become more similar in that regard as gaming consoles become more like PCs.
I don't understand the trend of wanting 1 thing that doesn't everything multimedia-wise, anyways - I'll continue to buy an MP3 player that's really good at playing MP3s and a cell phone that's really good at placing calls - but there certainly is that trend going on. I think if anything the gaming console will become more like a PC, than people simply ditch their PCs for gaming consoles that are similar to what we have now. In the past gaming console didn't have a hard drive at all, if I recall correctly. Now they run with hard drives, have USB ports, play off of DVDs, and have operating systems not much different from what runs on computers.
And I never remember the days of having to stand in lines for a computer, and that's been the case for new gaming consoles since the NES.
Posted at 3:25PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Matthew
12. Sorry but I would never ever use any of the online services which can reveal the way I do business or my figures. Privacy matters more than ever in this age. I do not think that I am the only small business person that chooses to hand it's business process to a large competitor. And yes even Google is a competitor as with that much of liquidities they can disrupt any industry.
I think there will always be room for a general purpose computing device to run business critical applications locally.
Posted at 3:29PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Bas Burger
13. Computer users can be broken down to 2 types: those who compute, and those who don't. And the ones who don't, well, they usually overbuy and never come close to realizing what they have in front of them!
I recently purchased the iMac with the Intel Core Duo processor. And just a sign of the times, it did NOT come as I needed it because I am not the normal computer user. I code. And iMac/OSX has amazing coding bundled software called Xcode. But it does NOT come with the iMac. You have to add it. Yes, go out of the way to add it. Even though its free. Download. It was freaking huge... are you ready? 924 MB!! I asked myself why I had to download such a HUGE package and why wasn't it already installed.
My guess was this: why waste all that memory on the Xcode when most users will never code and compile a C, C++, or FORTRAN program? Ever! Then I started thinking about what the % is who have ever coded. Being a grad student and modeling the climate (as well as hydrological systems), I could not even begin to imagine NOT coding. But I'm not the norm. So I wonder: how many computer users have ever written a program? 5 percent? 1% percent? Less? I'm not talking java or html. I'm talking programs that have to be compiled. Less than 1% .... ?
we're a dying breed. especially us FORTRAN guys!
greg
http://www.boxscorebasketball.com/NBA2006.htm
14. I thought for a second there, Mark CUban found his courage again
some thoughts on the NBA
Wade is still a kid, for some reason the powers that be in the NBA decided to annoint him in his second year, its not his fault, its the NBA's fault. hes an above average player but the way the syocphant announcers and sports analysts like Hubie Brown and Steve Kerr and a bunch of others rave about him is an insult to baksetball fans' intelligence, and I wish Hubie and Steve and those like them would just get out of announcing but thats just me. its difficult to have any respect for most of the announcers save a handful of honest ones, they make the league into a joke thats difficult to watch
All right enough negativity now for some positivity
but despite all the bull crap there are still some exciting plays once in a while and the Suns, Lakers, and Cavs (Cavs even more so now that Pavlovic is finally getting a chance to play) are fun to watch, Oh and I also like watching the Hawks too.
Kobe Bryant is awesome, hes just an awesome person, we are all fortunate as a culture to have such a high quality guy be a sports icon. Hes mature now and hes grown into just an all around great guy. He's still got big time competive fire but hes also a good sport and hes filled with positive energy and hes just an inspiration to see, not only for his talent but for his leadership and the way he conducts himself on the court and off the court in interviews. He is just awesome. I cant say enough good things about, I am filled wtih admiration for him. Anyone that gets a chance to be around him is lucky in my opinion, Hes the type of guy that makes you want to strive to be the best you can be and work hard in whatever you do in your own life. Keep doing exactly what you are doing Kobe, bravo
Bonzi Wells is awesome and if the rockets insert him into the starting lineup and give him 35 minutes a game, I predict that if Yao and Tracy stay healthy, the rockets will win the championship this year. Wells is thee most underated player in the league. In 2000 he and the blazers almost knoecked off the lakers in the westtern conference finals. last year he and the Kings almsot knocked of the Spurs. hes had some tough luck in that teams he has been on have always had a lot players at the 2 guard and small forward sports, but he needs to be on the court 35 minutes a game. Hes a warrior and hes intelligent and he just want to win and he'll do everything that it takes to win games. ONe more time I hope Jeff is listening, PLay Bonzie Wells and the rockets win it all.
lets see what else
The league needs to stop giving offensive players the calls when they jump into defenders chests, At leat 10 times a game in every game one will see a defensive players jsut standing there with his arms up while the offensive players runs and jumps into him and the foul is called on the defender. I am tired of seeing the righful looks of increduliy on defensive players faces when they are jsut standing there with there arms up. Easily 10 bad calls a game jsut like taht, its shameful and the refs need to stop that.
Im still a huge Jason WIlliams fan, I hope he does get traded and I hope he goes to a team where they give him control. He can do everything Steve Nash does only fasster and with more style, and he is almost as good a shooter. IF we was given the freedom that Nash was his team would average about 130 points a game and it would be even prettier to watch than the Suns.
Its a shame that we only get to see little glimpses of the genius of Jason WIlliams point guard on the heat. No one has ever done the things he can do, He is in a class by himself,
He had a game in his first year with Memphis where he had 38 points and 13 assists, I think he could average that if he was put in the right situation
Im a big fan of Sasha Pavolvic hes awesome I hope He and Lebron take the Cavs to finals in the east.
IM a big fan of MOnte Ellis on the warriors, he is blazing fast and he cna jump and he can shoot.
Im a big fan of Josh SMith on the Hawks, I think hes ready to be a superstar, and he and Joe Johnson I think just might get the Hawks into the playoffs
later kids
God Bless
Posted at 4:00PM on Feb 11th 2007 by craigp
15. Mark, You covered lots of major trends in this post. Some of these will converge on a single device or vendor and some will not.
I think you are right about the game console becoming the multi-media center of the home for games, video, music, and photos. Xbox is in a great position to handle all of these with more local storage.
I agree that new releases of hardware or operating systems don't get much attention anymore, and I think the reason is because gaming has moved off the PC and onto game consoles. Games have always been the driving force for bigger disks, faster processors, and better operating systems. It was the gamers who craved the new hw/sw releases.
I don't see the game console becoming the center for non-media uses like email, web browsing, or Office like applications. It is more likely that mobile phones and PDAs will take a bigger share of market for those uses. The game console and TV screen make lots of sense for gaming, video, photos, and music. But the TV screen is not ideal for web browsing, email, or Office stuff. The screen is the problem...both size and location.
Where does this leave the PC? I agree that all this horsepower (CPU, Disk, Memory) is unnecessary for simple web browsing, email, and office apps. But, the keyboard, screen, and location (desk or office versus sofa in the living room) make it the best choice for doing real work.
Does this leave an opening for a thin client or a resurgence of Larry Ellison's "Network Computer" idea? Yes, I think it does. Both Google and Microsoft Live are racing to build huge data centers to host these applications online. Google is assembling their Gmail, Docs and Spreadsheets, etc to be a player for the applications. Microsoft Live is doing the same thing.
You are right that the desktop PC is on the way out as the dominant center for all computing. The game console is taking over the multi-media stuff. The cell phone and PDAs are taking over all forms of communication including email. This leaves an opening for thin clients to take over what is left...office applications...which may be hosted in the cloud.
These are huge trends that will disrupt the current market, but the leaders are already working hard to make sure they have a piece of it.
Great insights! Thanks for making us all stop and think about this.
Don Dodge
16. What about the fact your console is tied to your tv? Alot of people have their gaming console hooked to a smaller tv and it is not that much of an issue, but if I'm going to be doing image editing, the standard tv does not have the resolution to produce quality pictures, and I only have one hd tv in the house. I'm not making the big bucks yet where every tv is hd and television resolution woldnt be an issue doing graphics on it with a console. Then you have to think about you have several remotes laying around and to add a keyboard and maybe a mouse to that mix is a bit much.
Posted at 4:33PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Mark M.
17. Sunday February 11, 2007
One way to get to that nba championship trophy is to acknowledge someone has won and played a good game in the past. AND THEN SAY I'M GETTING THIS ONE CHUMP.
Posted at 4:35PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Nancy Morales
18. Sunday February 11, 2007
WE ARE REALLY FORTUNATE TO HAVE MARK CUBAN SHARE WITH US HIS COMPUTER SMARTS. WOW OH WOW WHAT A GUY.
SIGNED, NANCY MORALES IN SAN ANTONIO
Posted at 4:47PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Nancy Morales
20. 1. The PC industry (MSFT, Apple, Dell, HP, etc.) has a huge ecosystem and continues to make $$. They are not going to blow up the business model that has served them well over the years.
2. That means an outsider needs to do it....Google? If anyone has the assets in place and the capitalization to pull it off, it is Google. But what exactly are they after? They just want you to rid yourself of MSFT software (thereby cripling MSFT) and trust Google for all your software needs. Tough sell to the Corp IT guys but consumers are a different story. I don't see Google prevailing on this front in any appreciable way
3. Larry Ellison and others have tried the thin client thing and it hasn't caught on. Maybe someone will try again...but who? Dell, HP etc aren't going to cannibalize their business. So a long shot.
4. VM's are interesting...but until you have ubiquitous wi-fi and access points everywhere and anywhere, VM's are on the margins and not going to be mainstream.
5. The status quo is ripe for a change....as you have observed, the dynamics for massive disruption are out there but who can line 'em all up to work for their advantage?
6. Off subject...but next time you come to Seattle I'd love to buy you a coffee and talk. I'm a former MSFT guy who has similar passions and interests as you do. Thx for considering the invite.
3.
Posted at 5:30PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Steve
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1. All excellent points Mark. I wonder if it will be Google or Sony that comes out as the winner in all this or maybe a new startup that is not even in the picture yet. Obviously Google has the technological advantage at this point. It remains to be seen what they plan to do with it. They don't say too much about their future plans except for advertising. How can someone other than the companies you mentioned profit from this? Do you have any plans to do something other than from the content side?
Tom
Posted at 12:56PM on Feb 11th 2007 by Tom B