Its fun to watch all the discussion, hyperbole and hopes associated with Apple TV. Once again Apple has come out with a well designed, functional product. Unfortunately for Apple, it may be too little too late.
Lets face some facts. The era of the desktop PC being the home for exciting change and enhancement are long gone. I wrote this for the first time 2 years ago, and nothing has changed since then.
Then in January of this year, I asked why people are so concerned about getting internet video from PCs to HDTVs , rather than taking traditional video from existing sources and distributing it to PCs. Basically saying that its a lot easier to get from TV to PC via any number of existing DVR and other devices than the other way around.
Yet Apple and others still seem to think that simplifying internet video through a PC to a device to an HDTV is the way to go. Is this the future of home entertainment.
Please. Its shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. Its a waste of time.
There is an old saying that when you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Right now the hammer is internet video and everyone wants to find a way to make it the future. Its old news people. Its a mature product in a mature environment.
Now don't get me wrong. Youtube, despite its copyright problems that could shut it down (i had to slip that in there :), has been a marketing miracle. They have done the completely unexpected and aggregated 10s of millions of monthly users. The same could be same of Myspace. They deserve a ton of credit for what they have accomplished. But the operative word is marketing. Embedded music and video was a catalyst for both. How long has the opportunity to embed videos in an html page been around, 8 years ? No original technology, but a new application of old features is what great ideas and great marketing thrive on.
That is what has made Web 2.0 so interesting. Web 2.0 isnt about technology. Its about ideas implemented around simple applications that have been around for years. The maturity of the technology makes the implementation of ideas simple. That is the key to success in Web 2.0. The technology always works. It may sound crazy to some, but thats the reality. The internet as a connectivity utility and the browser are mature application platforms.
So where will the change come ? What will the be the host for new applications ? Its right in front of our faces, literally. Its the HDTV that you will be buying in the future.
Remember when you would buy a new PC every couple years to keep up and you would buy a new TV every decade ? Well thats about to reverse itself. You no longer feel the need to get the latest and greatest desktop PC, but you are about to get in the habit of upgrading your TV every couple years as new and original features and applications are developed for it.
Dont agree ? Think about the last analog set you bought and what it looked like, could do and cost and compare it to the new HDTV you either just bought or are considering buying. Which has experienced the greatest technological change. The leap from your last analog TV to your next TV or your last PC to your current or next PC ?. The price performance of HDTVs are going to continue at the pace we saw for PCs in the late 90s and early 2000s. In 3 years the mainstream TV will be 70" and cost less than $1500. In 5 years, it could be 100" for $2500 dollars . Yes, you will make room for it. You will redesign the family room or your bedroom to make room.
The price performance curve will drive competition for incremental features as well.
We are getting to the point where features that would have been added to PCs in the past will be added to your HDTV. Advances in wireless technology will be more important to your new TV than your desktop PC once your TV has an IP address and internet connectivity, which is right around the corner.
New and unique applications will be developed for your TV ahead of your PC once every HDTV has a browser built in starting in 18 - 24 months.
If you want to see where exciting software is being developed, its not web 2.0. Its being developed for OCAP, Directv and Dish Networks interactive platforms among many. You probably didnt even realize that many of these development platforms are already being built into HDTVs and applications are starting to be released for them.
Its time for everyone to realize that the internet is old news. Its a mature utility, which is the greatest compliment you can give it. The desktop PC is old news. File it next to DVD players: useful and boring with obsolescence right around the corner. Web 2.0 is pleasingly boring.
If the question is "Whats Next ", the answer begins with "Watch TV"
The Maturity of Web 2.0 and The HDTV is the PC
Recent Posts
- Beating Google ? (5/14/2008)
Reader Comments
(Page 1)2. Mark,
I've been an avid lurker of your blog for quite some time and your insights are always intriguing, even if I don't share them at times. I think you're not touching on a couple of things about TV/HDTVs and PCs that will have a significant impact on where the world is moving.
First, the television is inherently a passive medium. This behavior has been ingrained in our DNA since we started watching as children. The PC is inherently an interactive medium -- rare is it that you will find someone on a PC who doesn't have half a dozen applications open, if not more. The advent of PIP and multiple tuners has enabled us to watch more than one program at a time, but in practice, aside from the rare sporting event here and there, people don't use this functionality. When we watch TV, we're far less interested in a clunky remote control interface to type in words or "interact" with our shows in realtime. To your point, interactive television has been around for over a decade and it has consistently failed. The market has spoken on this topic time and again, and yet people keep trying to resurrect it and it will continue to predictably fail. Things like PPV or "OnDemand" have been largely successful because all they do is simplify the process of buying/viewing content I'm interesting in. I'm not, however, interested in participating in an interactive survey of how I think the next episode of "Heroes" is going to turn out while I'm watching.
The second point I think you leave out is that we're an increasingly mobile society and what we care about less and less is the device (HDTVs in this case) and a lot more about viewing the content that I use that device for. I want to watch last night's "24" that I missed on my iPod while I'm on the subway to work. DVRs like TiVo have been largely successful because they record the content we want so that we can watch it when we want to. Some DVRs also enable us to watch it on the device we want (e.g. TivoToGo). Do I like having a huge HDTV (42" in my case) in my living room -- sure. Am I going to upgrade to a 70" model in a couple of years? Probably not. People upgrade their PCs to laptops today far more than before, and many households are beginning to purchase a laptop for each member of the household so everyone has "their PC". That happened with television long ago, but I don't see most families upgrading all of the family televisions every 2-3 years without a very compelling set of features.
Then again, what do I know...I'm just a guy in Chicago, and you're a gazillionaire who was really right when it counted. :)
Posted at 9:57AM on Apr 11th 2007 by Habeeb J. Dihu
3. Your post is quite interesting and makes total sense. Computers aren't really changing, minus the "media center" pc, which is practically obsolete already with tivos and other dvrs. However, the real question is whether or not the general public will ever embrace interactive television. I think there is a huge majority of the over-30 or over-40 demo that will never participate in interactive tv just because the way they enjoy tv is completely passive. They want to sit there and not think, not move, not interact at all. I think the same thing holds for a smaller majority of the younger generations. Americans just want to use their televisions to be lazy, to avoid doing other things, and to tune out the world.
I suspect this technology is going to take longer than you think to really catch on, because it's going to have to reach a point where some generation is just "used to it." You'll be right about early adopters; if this stuff becomes readily available as soon as you say, lots of geeks and people who don't know what to spend their money on will have it immediately. From there out, it's going to take word of mouth to spread it. These early adopters will have kids who have friends over to "play with the tv," and then when those kids grow up, they'll want to have it themselves.
However, as fast as everything gets adopted nowadays compared to the time it took things like color TVs, VCRs, CDs, and DVDs, i could be completely out of touch. But knowing how big interactive TV has been in Europe for some years now, why hasn't it caught on here?
Posted at 9:58AM on Apr 11th 2007 by Scott Allen
4. You must be smoking the HD.Net corporate crack pipe.
"Upgrading TV's every two years?" Come on, give us a break.
I purchased a 30" analog 15 years ago and never upgraded until this year because HD is such a big jump in quality. But I guarantee you that I'll not upgrade in two years because some yahoo company put a browser in their new TV.
Last comment... You said the Internet and PC is old news. Well... TV IS EVEN OLDER AND MORE BORING. Why do you think people are getting more and more entertainment from the Internet? When NBC dumps two shows mid year at the same time slot (Studio 60 and Black Something's) you know that there is just no imagination or talent at the studios anymore.
Why do you think there are so many jokes about 100 channels and nothing to watch.
TV is at the end of the big ride. HD may extend the media for a few years, but YOU are seeing the begining of the end. Of course something could come along better than American Idol that brings back the media, but I have serious doubts.
When reality TV runs it course what are we left with? Really? A great looking medium with nothing to really maintain our interests?
I guess I'll have to surf the net or get on some lame, boring chat room...
5. Interesting insight, and I do agree with a lot of what you said here. However, it appears that you maintain a distinction between PC and TV, when in fact the future TVs you described appear to blur that distinction.
You're going to have to replace your TV every couple of years? TVs will have an IP address and internet connectivity? New and unique apps will be developed for the TV? Interactive platforms?
Sounds like a whole lot of convergence between TVs and PCs. Should we even call them TV's anymore?
6. Wow, you addressed a lot of points here. I agree with most of them, and one or two i don't even know. I think you nailed it about the TV becoming the upgradeable item right now but I think there is probably a cyclical pattern here.
My take o apple TV is that apple is gambling that there are many people who want to have an Apple TV like device but have been put off by complicated setup procedures. I don't think this is true personally, but even if it is it is a failed business model. Most peopel who have massive content on their computers did not obtain it legally. (I am not even sure if backing up personal DVD collections is legal as of right now, I have heard mixed reports). either way, catering to these people worked for the Ipod but TV is another matter. People don't watch TV the way they listen to music. People like to veg out in front of the TV but with music it tends to be a background thing.
I think it is also wrong to say the net is a mature entity. It is very hard to predict what increasing bandwidth and computing power will allow the net to do. You tube could not have existed during dial up era.
Posted at 10:33AM on Apr 11th 2007 by superdave
7. As long as my HDTV has an Internet connection, a big hard drive, a RSS reader to pull down my video podcasts, and a nice menu to display them ... well, actually I would rather use a $500 linux PC for this then have to worry about my HDTV crashing. However I do want a nice big display for this content.
My point is that I am finding much better content on the Internet than from my cable service. For example today I found this Revision3 interview of John Todd of the Asterisk project: http://revision3.com/systm/asterisk ... can you point to any comparable shows on network or cable tv?
8. The other big jump that we are about to see is advertisers getting back into your tv viewing experience. The DVR may have eliminated your current commercial viewing experience but your HDTV connected to the Internet is about to pull you back in big time.
As more and more TV's get hooked into the Internet the ability for advertisers to make your commercial viewing experience interactive, competitive and compelling will increase.
You will soon be able to compete real time with thousands of other viewers for prizes, coupons, and cash by simply watching commercials and being the first one to get commercial bingo, answer the trivia question correctly, spot "Waldo" and all the other thousands of games they will come up with.
The shows you watch will also incorporate the same interactive features and will build in loyalty by rewarding long time, regular viewers with bonus points, etc.
Posted at 10:55AM on Apr 11th 2007 by Aaron Larson
9. I agree with part of what you say.
Yes I consider buying a new HDTV more often than buying a new computer and WEB 2.0 has some nice products. Also would rather watch HD.net or Blu-ray than Internet content of any kind.
But I also have an Apple TV and really enjoy having it. The reason is user generated content and not the kind you will ever find on YouTube. Before the Apple TV I never had an "enjoyable" way that "just worked" to enjoy the pictures I took with my digital camera that I love, but never print. Now I can look at them on my 55" HDTV (yes I actually do it). Also enjoy listening to the CDs I ripped on my HT system without being bothered with plugging something in or buying a $2000 sonos or TotalRequest box. Not to mention I like to see the cover art when browsing through my collection.
Video podcasts are also nice, but find that I only like short form, meaning less than 10 minutes, if its any longer I am going to need HD and real surround sound.
While the Apple TV or any other media streamer for that matter can't do what my TiVo Series3 or Blu-ray player can do, it can do some things very well that my primary devices can't -- at least not in a satisfactory way. (Yes I also have a Xbox360 and no I don't think it does a good job with pictures or music)
Ben
Posted at 11:02AM on Apr 11th 2007 by Ben Drawbaugh
10. I've no doubt you're spot-on. Personally, I'm in that smaller demographic of those who use TVs sparingly. If I want to watch a show or a movie, I'd like the TV to just do its original job of being a display unit. A huge, clear, HD screen is naturally highly desirable -- especially if they become as affordable as you've mentioned. But, interconnectivity, on-demand, interactivity, internet browsing, and all that other mumbo jumbo isn't important to me. Just sounds like expensive, time-sucking toys. Again, I'll concede being in the minority, though.
Posted at 11:09AM on Apr 11th 2007 by Patrick Hillman
12. Mark -- as an analyst who's been watching this space for 12 years, I see a little different future from yours.
First of all, there's no need to upgrade your $2000 TV when you can upgrade a $250 set top box. The display won't change, the capabilities will. (Sony and Panasonic WISH you were right, because their TV sales will suffer otherwise.)
Second, the space on top of the TV is resistant to new devices. This means the new box had better be pretty good. Imagine a high-definition TiVo with CableCARD and connections to Internet content. (Actually, TiVo already makes that product but it costs more than $250 right now.) The cable guys won't want you to have this product and access to Web content, but DirecTV and Dish will -- so it might come in a satellite set-top box flavor.
Or it could be the next generation of Apple TV, with HD content and video recording included.
That's the box that will unlock things and threaten the TV status quo.
I agree with you that the action will be on the TV side, not the PC. PCs with video are interesting. TVs with on-demand access to millions of HD videos, games, and stuff like that -- now it starts to get a lot more interesting.
/josh
Posted at 12:13PM on Apr 11th 2007 by Josh Bernoff
13. In terms of media, we could watch TV to see what the future holds. But I think the bigger shift in lifestyle (in the home anyway) will come from successful implementation of mesh networks. They have the potential to actually change the way we live in our homes. With TV, no matter what happens to it, we're just sitting on a couch or in a chair and watching video (even if it becomes interactive).
Though perhaps my comment is outside the current universe of discourse. :)
Posted at 12:24PM on Apr 11th 2007 by Robert Park
14. your comments about the internet being a "mature product in a mature environment" are dead on. you have to remember laughing at the folks that sat and scratched their heads in awe years ago when we were plugging radio shack fm tuners into the sound cards of a dell computer in order to broadcast live radio station streams over the internet. although simple, it provided a lot of convenience to a lot of people that we unable to listen to their favorite station, sports broadcast, etc.
your comments about people getting a new tv every two years is also dead on, *assuming* the manufacturers build in some really strong features that make it worth it to me. the prices are going to keep going down, we all know this part. i don't see myself pulling my tv off of the wall to get two more lines of resolution every two years, but if the new set provides some new compelling features i'll get that new tv every two years for sure and i know i am not alone.
just give me convenience. that is what it is all about. gimme a tv where i can watch what i want when i want and give me a portable device where i can do the same. in real estate it is location location location. in this situation it is "on demand and convenience" and that is about it!
Posted at 12:52PM on Apr 11th 2007 by Jordan Blum
15. My HDTV already has an IP address, courtesy of my TiVo. I also love having access to http://live365.com via Tivo, along with the pictures on my computer HD, the yahoo weather report and also movie listings. TiVo Gen 2 works real great, and I've only had to pay the monthly subscription payment while not paying for the hardware, working similar to a cell phone subscription (low pay for the hardware & monthly pay for the service).
Have to disagree with the PC upgrading. I would've agreed with you a couple days ago before I upgraded my Web browser and ran Disk Cleaner (along with the usual Adware stuff, registry cleaner, defragmenter, etc. etc.). Now, though, my computer from four years ago feels practically like new. I'll eventually get myself a laptop for portability, but that will probably happen later compared to sooner since the performance has improved a lot with my computer by simply keeping it maintained.
As for buying new HDTV sets, I have to agree with other people. I want it for the quality of picture (unfortunately, I need to get a new cable box for the improved picture), not for other features. I've got my TiVo, DVD player, cable box, sound system, etc. etc. to take care of all that. I'm guessing there'll be people out there who will want something all-in-1, like those stereos and other entertainment systems. In general, though, I agree with other people. I don't want to be lugging around huge, bulky equipment when I could just pay a couple hundred for a set-top box. It's a lot less of a hassle, even if the wiring can get tricky and annoying sometimes.
16. I forgot one other thing: It would be nice if the networks provided access to their streaming content via TiVo or some other TV-oriented format rather than through the PC. It's so annoying to watch TV shows on PC and lose the quality of sound, picture and comfort of the couch.
17. Cringely thinks that Apple will be adding H264 encode/decode chips to their whole line of computers ... Soon a $500 Mac Mini will be able to render HD video pretty nicely ... maybe the mini will ship with HDMI out ... and with a TV tuner/cable card, perhaps it could encode them just as easily as a DVR ... http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2007/pulpit_20070308_001806.html
... but I do still think that we will find better content online than on air ...
18. I see where Mark is coming from, but I will NOT buy a new TV every two years. I have better things to spend my money on than a thousand bucks a pop for a TV every 24 months. I'd rather take a nice vacation with my wife, which we'd talk about for years, than buy an expensive TV which will show me... in high definition (HD is good!)... 500 channels of crap! Technology is great, but know when to say when. And not everyone can spend like the world is a toy store.
Posted at 3:14PM on Apr 11th 2007 by Steve Cumming
19. Mark,
Great blog--but how about we move on to another topic besides internet video? Things like affiliate marketing, how the Internet is changing our shopping habits, personal experiences that have made you so successful in marketing? This would be most useful in my opinion.
Regards,
Will
Portland, ME
Posted at 3:41PM on Apr 11th 2007 by Will
20. I can't imagine why anyone would buy an iTV. You can't take it with you. I have a ZEN:Vision M that works like a DRV, downloads great content from Unbox and Wal-mart and I can take it anywhere I want. If I want to see it on a big screen, I just plug it into my TV and watch in DVD quality. I can't wait till HD Content is available this way. It just takes 1-Click to get this content from Amazon and the internet, through my PC, gets me to all this content. iTunes has been a huge disappointment, as I'm not that interested in Disney content. For now, this seems to be a great solution.
Posted at 4:20PM on Apr 11th 2007 by Linda Nelson
1. "you are about to get in the habit of upgrading your TV every couple years"
What's the next leap after HDTV? Aren't TVs just displays rather than the processing power?
What's your take on the cell phone becoming the actual PC, powering all your displays with a simple browser interface?
In that case there's little reason to keep upgrading the screen, incumbant operators don't even have bandwidth for High-Def, let alone the next step.
Posted at 9:54AM on Apr 11th 2007 by Adam Cains