What else is there to do while I sit here in the Cayman Islands relaxing and enjoying every minute of it then ponder the NBA Lottery.
During the season when all the discussions of tanking (i prefer to think of those games as player evaluation games) were taking place, my first inclination was to pick a "lottery date". A date early enough in the season that was too early for teams to risk the opportunity to battle for the last playoff spot. Given that teams can and do make end of season surges and under 500 teams make the playoffs, it seemed that this would be a plausible solution.
The counter of course is "what about injuries". A team with a late injury, or a player returning from injury late in the season could either be hurt or unfairly benefit. That of course killed my idea.
So while the Caymanian sun is shining upon me and the really important question of Bud Light vs Corona Light for my first drink of the day is about to be answered with a cold beverage from Budweiser, my solution has evolved to the following:
Replace the lottery with a simple better team record or coin flip based on conference standings. In other words, for the last two teams in each conference , the team with the better record gets the first pick. If its a tie, there is a coinflip. The next to last in each conference face off. The better record gets the 3rd pick, a coin flip breaks a tie, all the way up the standings.
This wont completely eliminate teams from committing to "player evaluation games" at the end of the season, but it does take into account the relevant strengths of the conferences and teams places within the conferences. Its possible that a 25 win team in the better conference is a much better team than a 25 win team in the weaker conference, yet they both get equal weight in the current lottery. They shouldn't.
What makes this system potentially exciting is that teams will have something to play for at the every end of the season. How much fun would it have been watching Boston and Memphis compete to win enough games to get the #1 pick ?
THis of course isnt foolproof. Teams will still resort to "player evaluation games" at the end of the season and in games between teams in the same conference things could still get absurdly comical at the end of the season.
But it would reduce the number of "player evaluation games" and it could create some really fun, competitive games once the standings are in place as teams play for the right to choose 1st, 3rd, etc.
If this doesn't get the job done, I can add one more option that might make things more interesting.
Rather than have one method of allocating draft picks, have more than one. On Lottery Day have a coin flip to decide which method is used.
A coin flip between the better team gets the pick system I described above and the current lottery system could make things fun and interesting on Lottery Day . Although losing would still be "rewarded" with a better pick in both cases, the uncertainty would make it difficult for teams to tank games during the season.
.
Then on draft day, the first coin flip is to decide which system is used.
Im sure there are better options out there, but I just thought I would throw this one out there as something to have fun with and think about.
Time to put some more sunscreen on :)
\
My take on the NBA Lottery
Recent Posts
Reader Comments
(Page 1)2. How about basing the lottery only on a randomly generated selection of games from within the season, say 50 randomly generated games.
Or base it only on the record vs non-playoff opponents?
Posted at 12:24PM on May 24th 2007 by Sam Goerdel
3. Why not let the BCS decide it? Their fancy computers can figure out a fair way to decide anything.
Posted at 12:44PM on May 24th 2007 by Zach Boehm
4. Your blog appears to be acting a bit strange lately...why are comments being cutoff rather quickly in some cases?
Posted at 1:03PM on May 24th 2007 by David
5. I still cant get over the fact that the NBA must institute a lotto b/c the worst teams cant be trusted to play on the level.
I think it says something about the entire league and it isnt subtle.
If u cant trust a franchise to play on the level, why should i trust a ref to ref on the level? a commish to commish on the level? players to play on the level?
I really try to give Sports the benefit of the doubt. I think its the kid in me, but in the case of basketball, i just dont trust the sport.
too many oddities. the Phx/SA series the commish ruins the series, the Mavs finals last year, the refs ruin the series. the conference finals and nba finals are irrelevant this year and the lotto is a complete joke.
did i forget to mention the playoffs are ridiculous. The need to totally eliminate the conference seeding and go top 16 teams in the NBA has never been more apparent. No East/ No West. No weighted schedules, no Lotto.
They need to figure it out b/c its kinda a joke right now.
Posted at 1:24PM on May 24th 2007 by Jay Slick
6. Mark,
You comments are based on the premise that a #1 draft pick will have a pronounced immediate or sustained impact on the win total for the team in the coming season(s). Or from a business perspective, that the player will have a pronounced impact on ticket & merchandise sales. Certainly some players have this impact - L. James, S. O'Neal etc. But many of the players who have made the biggest impact on their team were not #1 picks. Some were not even first round picks.
Certainly, some NBA teams have underperformed late in the season in an attempt to win ping pong balls. The uncertainty that you suggest be added to the draft process would at least partially negate that tactic.
Enjoy your Bud and remember to turnover every 20 minutes.
Posted at 1:39PM on May 24th 2007 by Kevin
7. I'd love to share my thoughts on your lottery ideas but find myself consumed by rage over your vacation bragging. Remember those of us who are going to be in cubicles for the next thirty years.
Posted at 1:45PM on May 24th 2007 by Dave Masters
8. We should let the teams that are in the lottery be in the lottery...instead of raffling off the pick numbers the top 14 players in the draft would be on the ping pong balls...or even let the teams pull their names out of a hat...I know it is a dumb idea but it has more merit and less controversy than the current system...If you didnt get the guy you want...trade up or down....imagine being the guy that drew lets say Al Horford...but you really wanted Kevin Durant...KDs name is still in the hat or on a ping pong ball with only two balls/ slips left in the hat...you could trade Horford and a selection to be named later to the team that has one of the last two picks to try to nab KD...More excitement that a coin flip
Posted at 1:51PM on May 24th 2007 by mike toler
9. It's too bad that players, coaches and owners don't play EVERY game like it's game 7 of the NBA finals. It's time to be men and play for the love of the sport...
Posted at 1:52PM on May 24th 2007 by erik
10. I like your idea for its inventiveness, but like any other suggested alteration, it doesn't entirely eliminate the motivation to lose games. Let's face it, if you're not going to make the playoffs, there will never be any reason to try to win games (other than integrity, pride, respect for your fan base, and other such things that don't exist in the real world). If you want to get rid of that motive, the only idea that makes any sense is Jeff Van Gundy's. Every year, the draft order is completely randomized. All 30 teams get one ping pong ball each, from the first pick to the last.
Of course the argument against this (aside from it just sounding silly) is that you need to favor the weaker teams to achieve parity and give franchises a chance to get out of the cellar. But since the current system doesn't seem to do a great job of this either, why not give it a shot?
11. Mark, you're right, its a bunch of crap and if there is a way to stop it I would back it 100%. However the lottery and the draft exist to give the worst teams a chance at the best players, and overall wins/losses is what it really comes down to, so I don't know if you'll ever see it change.
"Somebody once said that in the history of the world, pessimists are usually right, optimists are usually wrong, but all the great change in history was made by optimists." -Thomas Friedman
Posted at 2:16PM on May 24th 2007 by Iain McQueen
12. How about the worst 8 teams each nominate a player from their team to enter into a E-L-E-P-H-A-N-T Tournament (i.e., "Horse" with more letters).
8th worse team starts with ELEPHAN
7th worse team starts with ELEPHA
6th ........................... with ELEPH
5th ........................... with ELEP
4th............................ with ELE
3rd............................ with EL
2nd........................... with E
Worst ........................ witth nothing.
Worst team gets first shot - if he makes it, everyone must make it. At end of game, the first 8 picks are allocated accoring to order of finish.
It would be entertaining.
Posted at 2:18PM on May 24th 2007 by Scott Lewis
13. I just like the old lottery method where every team who doesn't make the playoffs has the same amount of balls in the hopper and they draw for all 14 picks.
Posted at 2:24PM on May 24th 2007 by Marcus
14. Mark:
I think that the draft order from previous years should play a role in the present year's draft order. For instance, if a team had a top 3 pick last year, they shouldn't get a top 3 pick this year.
I get tired of seeing the same lame-ass teams in the lottery every year. The Hawks get high draft picks every year, and yet they never get any better. The NBA lottery has become a welfare program for teams that can't get their act together.
If you own an NBA team, it is your responsibility to get some good leadership in your organization to do some hard work and build a good team instead of suckling from the NBA Lottery teat every year hoping the latest 19 year old phenom can save your ass.
Posted at 2:50PM on May 24th 2007 by Kevin Shaughnessy
15. That idea is pretty interesting, but it wouldn't stop second to last place in the conference from trying to be last in the conference. So for instance lets say memphis is last in the west, and Seattle in second. Seattle is going to try to lose games to get behind memphis, but stay above Boston for the first pick. That would be complicated to manage so it might work, but it wouldn't eliminate the throw away games completely, but it would make the last place team more interesting to watch as they try and win games to be better then the other conference, and that would be good for the fans of that team.
Posted at 3:20PM on May 24th 2007 by Michael Whitney
16. "This wont completely eliminate teams from committing to "player evaluation games" at the end of the season, but it does take into account the relevant strengths of the conferences and teams places within the conferences. Its possible that a 25 win team in the better conference is a much better team than a 25 win team in the weaker conference, yet they both get equal weight in the current lottery. They shouldn't. "
Unless you mis printed this, you are saying the better team should get the first pick. I don't agree with that.
The NFL addresses this issue by way of the schedule. 1st place teams in their division have a 1st place schedule the next year. This leads to (with some grand assumptions) a parity between the AFC and NFC. But is also affects the standings within conference and divisions.
While the NBA can't make the individual games mean more, they could certainly compute a team ranking based on strength of schedule and overall record.
Unlike the BCS, the strength of schedule can be based on final standings and competition's records to determine draft order. Eastern conference teams with equal records as Western Conference teams would have a slight priority as they (at least this year) have a weaker strength of schedule.
This of course will lead to "evaluation" games which the lottery system attempted to quarantine. But those already exist.
But it will also lock in certain teams rank earlier in the season. Bubble teams will be incented to win. Why? Because by winning, they are increasing other's strength of schedule which will lower their competitions draft position. Once I know, approximately where I'll be picking, I want to win every game to attempt to worsen everyone else's draft ranking.
Posted at 3:33PM on May 24th 2007 by PSC
17. I was thinking about the draft, and this is what I came up with.
All drafts reward the worst team, regardless of reason. It rewards tanking teams as well teams that had big stars retire in a previous season.
Why not create a system that rewards all teams equally, or eliminate the draft totally.
Just because one team did a better job at drafting players, signing players, and coaching why should that team be penalized with the worst pick?
It is a business. We shouldn't reward the worst teams.
Maybe you have a draft system that is equal for all teams, but if you win a pick that happens to be in the 1/3 of the draft, the next year you don't get one in the top 1/3. If you didn't improve with a top 1/3 pick, too bad.
If you think about it, professional sports uses a system that rewards bad teams with better players.
Heck, the NBA has a salary cap. Why not let everyone be free agents, including rookies?
Posted at 3:34PM on May 24th 2007 by Scott Wyffels
18. My system: 10 teams in the lottery. 10 balls for worst record, then 9, then 8, etc. If you just miss the playoffs, tough luck. You might as well try to make the playoffs.
All 10 picks are drawn.
If you get the #1 pick, you must "pay" 10 balls for the pick. For the #2 pick, you "pay" 9 balls, etc. If you don't have enough, you still get the pick - but you get a negative balance.
After the lottery, your balance carries over to next year. So, if you get screwed you could still have a lottery pick next year even if you make the playoffs. Or... if you get lucky (cough Orlando cough Portland), you'll be running a negative balance next year and almost certainly get shut out of the top 10.
By having the balls carry over, your "luck" evens out over time.
Isn't that the spirit?
Posted at 3:58PM on May 24th 2007 by Brian Yennie
19. Institute a system like the English Premier League. Boston and Memphis should be relegated to the D League. Shake things up. Promote two D-League teams to the NBA. Fans who pay to go to the game, networks that pay for broadcast rights, deserve better than teams playing to lose.
Posted at 4:22PM on May 24th 2007 by Dave Ward
20. Why not just make it like the NFL draft. Sure it won't stop the tank jobs but there won't be questions on whether or not the lotto is fixed.
Dave Masters - Don't be angry with Mark. If you don't want to be stuck in a cube for the next 30 do something about it. There are plenty of ways to make a great living without sitting in a cube. Look at yourself, figure out what you are good at and what you are passionate about, then find a way to make money doing that.
Mark - Stick with Bud, putting fruit in your beer is not a sign of class its a sign of being a sheep following the heard.
1. When did Portland and Seattle get NBA teams?
Posted at 11:58AM on May 24th 2007 by Joe Corey